CCMC CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001)

## Community Coordinated Modeling Center Database Of Notifications, Knowledge, Information ( CCMC DONKI )
## Message Type: Space Weather Notification - CME update (OSIRIS-APEX, STEREO A, Missions Near Earth)
##
## Message Issue Date: 2025-08-30T22:06:35Z
## Message ID: 20250830-AL-006
##
## Disclaimer: NOAA's Space Weather Prediction Center is the United States Government official source for space weather forecasts. This "Experimental Research Information" consists of preliminary NASA research products and should be interpreted and used accordingly.


## Summary:

Update on CME with ID 2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001 (see previous notification 20250830-AL-005). Based on preliminary analysis by the Moon to Mars Space Weather Analysis Office and heliospheric modeling carried out at NASA Community Coordinated Modeling Center, it is estimated that this CME may affect OSIRIS-APEX and STEREO A (glancing blow). The leading edge of the CME will reach OSIRIS-APEX at 2025-09-01T20:51Z and the flank of the CME will reach STEREO A at 2025-09-02T09:00Z (plus minus 7 hours). 

The simulation also indicates that the CME may impact NASA missions near Earth. Simulations indicate that the leading edge of the CME will reach NASA missions near Earth at about 2025-09-01T19:21Z (plus minus 7 hours). The roughly estimated expected range of the maximum Kp index is 7-8 (strong to severe).
   

Updated CME parameters are (event remains O-type):

Start time of the event: 2025-08-30T20:09Z.

Estimated speed: ~1317 km/s.

Estimated opening half-angle: 35 deg.

Direction (lon./lat.): -13/1 in Heliocentric Earth Equatorial coordinates.

Activity ID: 2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001


Links to the movies of the modeled event (includes CME: 2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001):

http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224300_2.0_anim.tim-den.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224300_2.0_anim.tim-vel.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224300_2.0_anim.tim-den-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224300_2.0_anim.tim-vel-Stereo_A.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_STA_timeline.gif
http://iswa.gsfc.nasa.gov/downloads/20250830_224300_2.0_ENLIL_CONE_Osiris_timeline.gif


## Notes: 

This CME event (2025-08-30T20:09:00-CME-001) is associated with M2.7 flare from AR 14199 (N03E13) with ID 2025-08-30T19:11:00-FLR-001 which peaked at 2025-08-30T20:02Z.


SCORE CME typification system:
S-type: CMEs with speeds less than 500 km/s
C-type: Common 500-999 km/s
O-type: Occasional 1000-1999 km/s
R-type: Rare 2000-2999 km/s
ER-type: Extremely Rare >3000 km/s


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